### The Israeli opposition has already lost [Israel is heading towards general elections](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/13/israels-ruling-coalition-proposes-early-elections-amid-ultra-orthodox-anger-at-netanyahu) in October - at the latest. What can we expect? What does this mean for the state of the Israeli opposition? And how likely is Netanyahu to be re-elected? In short: the Israeli opposition is in a sorry state. What should have been a walk in the park - an easy win against an arrogant kleptocrat, currently on trial for corruption; a war criminal, wanted by the International Criminal Court; Israel's longest-serving prime minister, who presided over the October 7th attacks, dragging the country into a destructive, costly, and endless war - is turning into a toss-up. How did we get here? The last electoral cycle was a marathon of [five consecutive, undecided elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932022_Israeli_political_crisis) (2019–2022). The results varied slightly after each round, with several short-lived governments formed, but ultimately, it was a protracted stalemate between two blocs. The political map was roughly evenly divided into pro- and anti-Netanyahu camps, with a sizable Palestinian bloc preventing either side from mustering the 61-seat majority needed to form a stable coalition government. You can read more about the crisis in my previous analysis, [here](https://www.972mag.com/joint-list-building-palestinian-political-power/). The crisis ended in late 2022, with the formation of the most right-wing government in Israel's history. A great deal has happened since: Barely a month after the new government was sworn in, in January 2023, Justice Minister [Yariv Levin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yariv_Levin) announced [a sweeping plan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform) to weaken the Israeli Supreme Court. This sparked massive, persistent, weekly demonstrations across Israel, galvanizing the anti-Netanyahu camp. You can read more about these protests [[2023-03-27 - Could Israel's protests succeed?|here]], but the major takeaway is this: though truly impressive in their duration and scale, the protests encapsulated the Israeli opposition's greatest weakness - its ideological bankruptcy; its failure to offer new ideas beyond opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu, the man. There's a reason the opposition has been dubbed the "[anyone but Bibi](https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/anyone-but-bibi-is-not-a-strategy-its-a-cop-out/)" bloc. Its leaders wish to replace Bibi Netanyahyu, the corrupt prime minister, without replacing Bibism, his ideological legacy, which remains deeply rooted within the Israeli mainstream. This failure is plainly evident when examining the opposition's conduct after October 7th. Rather than holding the prime minister responsible - not only for the military-strategic failure that enabled the Hamas-led attack, but for years of "conflict management", which bolstered Hamas' standing and capabilities - the opposition closed ranks, backing Netanyahu's genocidal campaign. Today, three years into a long, costly, and destructive war on multiple fronts, the opposition continues to follows this hollow playbook, trying to scrape votes from the right without ever presenting a real ideological alternative. Instead of capitalizing on Netanyahu's many blunders, they have stuck with a timid, poll-driven approach, forever drifting rightward in pursuit of the Israeli center. Instead of building coalitions with Israel's Palestinian-led democratic camp, they shoot themselves in the foot by [rejecting Jewish-Palestinian partnership in advance](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/27/analysis-bennett-lapid-alliance-attempt-to-unseat-israels-netanyahu). Whether the opposition manages to eke out a small victory or not, Bibi - the political project, if not the man - has won.